This tab derives a peer-reviewed adult-weight prediction for Peter from his confirmed Embark profile, and compares it to a separate prediction fit purely to his weigh-in trajectory.
Embark groups Medium and Standard Poodles together (and Toy and Miniature together) because each pair is genetically the same breed, distinguished in continental European registries (FCI No. 172) by height only. The profile sums to 100% β no unresolved bucket.
| Breed | Admixture | Salt 2017 size |
|---|---|---|
| Golden Retriever | 57% | Cat V (30β40 kg) |
| Labrador Retriever | 15% | Cat V |
| Siberian Husky | 11% | Cat IV (15β30 kg) |
| Bulldog | 4% | Cat IV |
| Poodle (Medium & Standard) | 4% | Cat III/IV |
| Saint Bernard | 3% | Cat VI (>40 kg) |
| Poodle (Toy & Miniature) | 2% | Cat I (<6.5 kg) |
| Chinese Shar-Pei | 1% | Cat IV |
| Collie | 1% | Cat V |
| German Shepherd | 1% | Cat V |
| Australian Shepherd | 1% | Cat IV/V |
Two of the small percentages carry disproportionate genetic information: 2% Toy/Mini Poodle sits at the opposite end of the size spectrum from the bulk of the profile, and 3% Saint Bernard brings genuine giant-breed alleles. Their effects on the linear-mean prediction roughly cancel (~+4.8 lb from Saint Bernard, ~β1.1 lb from Toy/Mini relative to ancestry-mean assumption), but their effects on the underlying genotype distribution do not.
Peter is male, so all references are male-specific. For each breed I record the AKC/FCI/KC standard, reconcile against measured-population data where available, then settle on a point estimate and a low/high.
| Source | Male range |
|---|---|
| AKC standard (GRCA, 1990) | 65β75 lb (29.5β34 kg) |
| FCI Standard No. 111 | 29β34 kg |
| The Kennel Club (UK) | weight not specified |
| Morris Animal Foundation GRLS (n=3,044) | not published as median; 37% of cohort overweight/obese |
Synthesized: 70 lb (low 65, high 75). All registries that publish a weight converge on the same range; no measured-population mean has been published from GRLS.
| Source | Male value |
|---|---|
| AKC standard ("in working condition") | 65β80 lb (29.5β36.3 kg) |
| FCI Standard No. 122 | 29β36 kg |
| Helmink 2000 (J Anim Sci, n=880, Gompertz Wmax) | 31.4 kg = 69.2 lb |
| O'Neill 2018 (PLOS ONE, VetCompass UK, n=12,069 males) | mean 35.2 kg = 77.6 lb (SD 13 lb) |
| Penell 2019 (Acta Vet Scand, n=12 males, 6β12 yr) | 28.7 kg β 32.1 kg |
The 8-lb gap between Helmink's working-line dogs and the VetCompass pet-population mean is the well-documented Lab obesity tendency (Raffan 2016 Cell Metab: ~25% carry the POMC 14-bp deletion adding ~4 lb per allele).
Synthesized: 73 lb (low 65, high 80). Splits the difference between working-line asymptote and pet-population mean.
Synthesized: 52 lb (low 45, high 60). All four registries (AKC 45β60, FCI 20.5β28 kg, KC 20β27 kg, UKC 45β60) align within 1 kg.
Synthesized: 55 lb (low 50, high 60). Compromise between AKC ideal (~50 lb) and measured pet-population mean (~60 lb, O'Neill 2019). Largest standard-vs-measured gap of any breed reviewed; reflects breed obesity, not genetic body-size potential.
Synthesized: 50 lb (low 35, high 70). Wide range reflects genuine genetic-test ambiguity. AKC descriptive: Standard male 60β70 lb; Embark Standard Poodle: male 50β70 lb; Wisdom Panel "Med + Std": 15β69 lb.
Saint Bernard β AKC: males 140β180 lb (63.5β81.6 kg). FCI: minimum 70 cm at withers. Synthesized: 160 lb (low 140, high 180).
Toy + Miniature Poodle β combined envelope ~4β15 lb. Synthesized: 10 lb (low 5, high 15).
| Breed | Pct | Mid (lb) | Low | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chinese Shar-Pei | 0.01 | 52 | 45 | 60 |
| Collie | 0.01 | 67 | 60 | 75 |
| German Shepherd | 0.01 | 77 | 65 | 90 |
| Australian Shepherd | 0.01 | 57 | 50 | 65 |
TjΓΈrve & TjΓΈrve 2017 review canine growth modeling. The logistic model is symmetric (inflection at 50% of asymptote). Gompertz inflects at 1/e β 36.8% β asymmetric, with fast acceleration early and a long tail. Puppies hit half-adult-weight well before age-mid, so Gompertz is the better mechanistic fit.
Peter's breed-weighted adult lands at 67 lb / 30.4 kg β right at the IV/V boundary. About 72% of his admixture is in Cat V (Golden + Lab); 15% in Cat IV (Husky + Bulldog); 4% Poodle straddles III/IV; 9% spread elsewhere.
Fitting Gompertz W/A = exp(βexp(β(t β c)/b)) to the Pete-weighted column at three anchor weeks (8, 16, 26) yields:
A_breed = 0.57Β·70 + 0.15Β·73 + 0.11Β·52 + 0.04Β·55 + 0.04Β·50
+ 0.03Β·160 + 0.02Β·10 + 0.01Β·52 + 0.01Β·67 + 0.01Β·77 + 0.01Β·57
= 68.30 lb β 68 lb
Breed-standard range: 62β75 lb. Envelope if Peter sits at the low or high end of every breed's standard simultaneously.
Plassais et al. 2019 (Nat Commun) attribute ~95% of standard-breed-weight variance to ~14 genes. Arvelius et al. 2023 measured hΒ² = 0.51 for adult body weight β meaning genetics caps prediction rΒ² at ~0.5; the other half is environment, BCS, and developmental factors.
The same Pete-weighted Gompertz curve, but solving for A from each weigh-in (back-out adult weight from current weight given the curve shape), then taking a recency-weighted average. Quadratic weights (iΒ² for the i-th observation) give heavier weight to later, more-predictive points.
| Method | Adult (lb) |
|---|---|
| Breed-weighted (genetic) | 68 |
| Data-fit (Pete-weighted Gompertz) | 55 |
The 13-lb gap is well within the genetic CI for a mixed-breed prediction (~Β±20β25%). Embark itself is candid that single-dog mixed-breed predictions can miss by ~25%. Final adult weight in the 58β62 lb range is the most defensible point estimate combining genetics with his actual trajectory.